SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics revealed by wastewater sequencing analysis and deconvolution.

The use of RNA sequencing from wastewater samples is a valuable way for estimating infection dynamics and circulating lineages of SARS-CoV-2. This approach is independent from testing individuals and can therefore become the key tool to monitor this and potentially other viruses. However, it is equally important to develop easily accessible and scalable tools which can highlight critical changes in infection rates and dynamics over time across different locations given sequencing data from wastewater. Here, we provide an analysis of lineage dynamics in Berlin and New York City using wastewater sequencing and present PiGx SARS-CoV-2, a highly reproducible computational analysis pipeline with comprehensive reports. This end-to-end pipeline includes all steps from raw data to shareable reports, additional taxonomic analysis, deconvolution and geospatial time series analyses. Using simulated datasets (in silico generated and spiked-in samples) we could demonstrate the accuracy of our pipeline calculating proportions of Variants of Concern (VOC) from environmental as well as pre-mixed samples (spiked-in). By applying our pipeline on a dataset of wastewater samples from Berlin between February 2021 and January 2022, we could reconstruct the emergence of B.1.1.7(alpha) in February/March 2021 and the replacement dynamics from B.1.617.2 (delta) to BA.1 and BA.2 (omicron) during the winter of 2021/2022. Using data from very-short-reads generated in an industrial scale setting, we could see even higher accuracy in our deconvolution. Lastly, using a targeted sequencing dataset from New York City (receptor-binding-domain (RBD) only), we could reproduce the results recovering the proportions of the so-called cryptic lineages shown in the original study. Overall our study provides an in-depth analysis reconstructing virus lineage dynamics from wastewater. While applying our tool on a wide range of different datasets (from different types of wastewater sample locations and sequenced with different methods), we show that PiGx SARS-CoV-2 can be used to identify new mutations and detect any emerging new lineages in a highly automated and scalable way. Our approach can support efforts to establish continuous monitoring and early-warning projects for detecting SARS-CoV-2 or any other pathogen.

Predicting lethal courses in critically ill COVID-19 patients using a machine learning model trained on patients with non-COVID-19 viral pneumonia.

In a pandemic with a novel disease, disease-specific prognosis models are available only with a delay. To bridge the critical early phase, models built for similar diseases might be applied. To test the accuracy of such a knowledge transfer, we investigated how precise lethal courses in critically ill COVID-19 patients can be predicted by a model trained on critically ill non-COVID-19 viral pneumonia patients. We trained gradient boosted decision tree models on 718 (245 deceased) non-COVID-19 viral pneumonia patients to predict individual ICU mortality and applied it to 1054 (369 deceased) COVID-19 patients. Our model showed a significantly better predictive performance (AUROC 0.86 [95% CI 0.86-0.87]) than the clinical scores APACHE2 (0.63 [95% CI 0.61-0.65]), SAPS2 (0.72 [95% CI 0.71-0.74]) and SOFA (0.76 [95% CI 0.75-0.77]), the COVID-19-specific mortality prediction models of Zhou (0.76 [95% CI 0.73-0.78]) and Wang (laboratory: 0.62 [95% CI 0.59-0.65]; clinical: 0.56 [95% CI 0.55-0.58]) and the 4C COVID-19 Mortality score (0.71 [95% CI 0.70-0.72]). We conclude that lethal courses in critically ill COVID-19 patients can be predicted by a machine learning model trained on non-COVID-19 patients. Our results suggest that in a pandemic with a novel disease, prognosis models built for similar diseases can be applied, even when the diseases differ in time courses and in rates of critical and lethal courses.

Transcriptomic profiling of SARS-CoV-2 infected human cell lines identifies HSP90 as target for COVID-19 therapy.

Detailed knowledge of the molecular biology of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is crucial for understanding of viral replication, host responses, and disease progression. Here, we report gene expression profiles of three SARS-CoV- and SARS-CoV-2-infected human cell lines. SARS-CoV-2 elicited an approximately two-fold higher stimulation of the innate immune response compared to SARS-CoV in the human epithelial cell line Calu-3, including induction of miRNA-155. Single-cell RNA sequencing of infected cells showed that genes induced by virus infections were broadly upregulated, whereas interferon beta/lambda genes, a pro-inflammatory cytokines such as IL-6, were expressed only in small subsets of infected cells. Temporal analysis suggested that transcriptional activities of interferon regulatory factors precede those of nuclear factor κB. Lastly, we identified heat shock protein 90 (HSP90) as a protein relevant for the infection. Inhibition of the HSP90 activity resulted in a reduction of viral replication and pro-inflammatory cytokine expression in primary human airway epithelial cells.